Welcome to the thrilling world of fantasy baseball, where every week brings new stories of rising stars and falling fortunes. This week, we're diving into the Deep League Risers and Fallers, exploring the players who are making waves and those who are struggling to find their footing. Get ready for a deep dive into the numbers, trends, and personal insights that will help you navigate the ever-changing landscape of fantasy baseball.
Risers
Garrett Mitchell, Milwaukee Brewers
Garrett Mitchell is a player who embodies the classic fantasy baseball profile: a fast runner with a powerful swing. What makes him particularly fascinating is his ability to maintain a strong walk rate despite his high strikeout rate. In my opinion, this is a rare combination that can lead to significant value in fantasy baseball. Mitchell's 95 MPH exit velocity and 53% hard hit rate are stellar, and his 13% barrel rate is impressive. While his 45% whiff rate and 40% K rate are high, his walk rate of 13% allows him to use his speed even when he's not hitting his way on base.
The good news is that Mitchell has maintained a strong walk rate throughout his young career. This should allow him to use his wheels even when he's not hitting his way on base. Before you ask, yes, I prefer him to Doyle and would make the swap. Mitchell's upside is plainly obvious, and his recent performance has been nothing short of impressive.
Joe Boyle, Tampa Bay Rays
Joe Boyle is a starting pitcher who has improved his walk rate and added a wider selection of pitches to his arsenal. Last year, Boyle relied on just 3 offerings, but this season, he has added a sinker and a sweeper to his repertoire. These two differences, a wider selection of pitches and a much-improved walk rate, are exactly the things that would support a real step forward for Boyle. Boyle's improved walk rate follows a remixed arsenal, and he has carried big walk rates in the past.
The big question is whether he sticks in the rotation once Ryan Pepiot returns from the IL. The Rays had initially planned to send Boyle to AAA to keep him stretched out as a starter until Pepiot hit the IL just before the season began. He’s set to face the Cubs on Wednesday this week, and likely needs to keep pitching well to keep his spot. Color me optimistic, I think the big man keeps rolling.
Cole Young, Seattle Mariners
Cole Young is a second baseman who has gotten off to a strong start, slashing .256/.310/.513 with two homers. Second base is still the weakest position in fantasy baseball, so I’m going to prioritize checking in anytime a keystoner gets hot. However, Young's underlying rates don't seem to suggest any sort of legitimate breakout. His strongest asset last season was his plate discipline, but his chase, whiff, and K rates have worsened this season.
While Young's minor league K:BB ratio was very nearly 1:1, I do think his plate discipline rates will regress positively. However, I can't say the power surge looks real. I think he’ll be a better batting average and on-base percentage source, but he is unlikely to provide much in the way of dingers or steals, and runs and RBI could be tough to come by while batting in the bottom third of the order.
Fallers
Brenton Doyle, Colorado Rockies
Brenton Doyle is an outfielder who has struggled to find his footing this season, batting just .129/.206/.161 with no homers and one stolen base through his first 34 plate appearances. Doyle didn’t exactly light the league on fire last season with his .651 OPS, but his 15 homers and 18 steals over 138 games did provide some nice category juice. Doyle’s chase, whiff, and K rates are all worse than his career rates right now, but we are still only a couple of weeks into the season.
Doyle’s home/away splits are dramatic, and his homers and steals were split evenly in 2024, but last year, only a third of his homers came away from Coors, and he stole more bases at home, too. Doyle’s chase, whiff, and K rates are all worse than his career rates right now, but we are still only a couple of weeks into the season. He could still be a useful fantasy asset if you have a deep enough roster where you could use him as a home-field-only platoon bat.
Brandon Sproat, Milwaukee Brewers
Brandon Sproat is a starting pitcher who had a much clearer path to playing time in Milwaukee. However, his Brewers debut was not a good start, as he walked 4 and allowed 3 homers while tossing 86 pitches over just 3 innings of work. Sproat has a 14.85 ERA and 2.55 WHIP with 4 dingers allowed and a 7:7 K:BB ratio through his first 6.2 innings as a Brewer. Despite a discouraging start, I want to see Sproat throwing 97 MPH heaters and the rest of his 6-pitch arsenal at least one more time before doing anything drastic.
Moisés Ballesteros, Chicago Cubs
Moisés Ballesteros is a catcher who has struggled to find his footing this season, going just 3-16 with 2 walks and 6 strikeouts in his first 5 games. Ballesteros had strong minor league numbers last year, slashing .316/.385/.473 in 114 games at AAA, but he has found himself out of the starting lineup for the next five games. If Ballesteros settles into a strong side platoon at DH, that would provide similar volume to a regular starting catcher. However, I don’t think he’ll get enough at-bats to be relevant in most formats.
Deeper Analysis
This week's risers and fallers highlight the importance of staying up-to-date with player performance and adjusting your fantasy baseball roster accordingly. While Garrett Mitchell and Joe Boyle have shown promise, Brenton Doyle and Brandon Sproat have struggled to find their footing. Moisés Ballesteros, on the other hand, has found himself out of the starting lineup, which could impact his fantasy value.
As we move further into the season, it will be crucial to monitor player performance and make adjustments to your roster. Stay tuned for more insights and analysis as we continue to navigate the ever-changing landscape of fantasy baseball.
Thanks for reading, Deep Leaguers! Once we get further into the season, I will make you look at more charts, graphs, and tables—serious stuff. Until then, good luck out there!
