Unraveling the Paradox: New England's Winter Chills Amid Global Warming
The winter of 2025-2026 in New England has been a stark reminder of the complex relationship between climate change and local weather patterns. As Michael Rawlins, associate director of the Climate System Research Center at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, notes, these disruptive cold spells can raise questions: "What happened to global warming?"
The answer, he explains, is that global warming is still happening, but it doesn't preclude extreme cold outbreaks. This paradoxical scenario has sparked curiosity and concern among residents and scientists alike.
New England's December was particularly frigid, with record-low temperatures and snowstorms. Boston's average temperature of 31.3 degrees Fahrenheit was the chilliest since 2017, despite the region's overall warming trend. The year 2025 was one of the hottest on record globally, with rising temperatures driven by fossil fuel emissions. Yet, New England experienced its fair share of bitter cold.
Climate experts are turning to the Arctic for answers. Research suggests that rapid warming in this region can disrupt the polar vortex, a swirling mass of frigid air above the North Pole. As the Arctic warms faster than the rest of the planet, the ice is melting, potentially weakening or elongating the polar vortex. This phenomenon could be a key factor in the cold spells experienced by New England.
The polar jet stream, which fuels temperature contrasts between the Arctic and temperate regions, is also under scrutiny. As the Arctic warms, the temperature difference diminishes, potentially causing the jet stream to meander and drive extreme weather patterns. Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist at Woodwell Climate Research Center, proposed this idea in 2012, and subsequent studies have confirmed the link between climate change and jet stream behavior.
However, not all researchers agree on the specific causes of the cold spells. Some point to La Niña conditions, marked by below-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, as a contributing factor. Others argue that the jet stream's meandering waves are not unusual, challenging the notion that climate change is intensifying these cold snaps.
The warming trend in New England is undeniable. Since 1900, the region has warmed by over 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit, making it one of the fastest-warming areas globally. This warming has led to a decrease in snow days and a shift in expectations for winter weather. Stephen Young, a professor of environmental sustainability, emphasizes that even as New England warms, it will still experience record lows, snowstorms, and cold months.
Despite the challenges, there's a sense of resilience and adaptation. Michael Iacono, chief scientist at Blue Hill Observatory, notes that while the December of 2025 was extremely cold, it was not unprecedented. The year as a whole averaged around 50 degrees, making it the coldest since 2019. The observatory's climate record, dating back to 1885, highlights the region's ability to recover from such weather events.
Looking ahead, forecasters predict a warmer-than-normal winter for much of southern New England, with a balanced chance of above or below-normal temperatures for the rest of the region. As the climate continues to evolve, New Englanders must navigate the complexities of global warming and local weather patterns, embracing both the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.
